Questions for seismologists and USGS

 Digital Discourse Foundation 

By Malini Shankar

In the wake of the Turkey Syria earthquake of 6th February 2023 it has emerged that a Dutch scientist had forecast the seismic event just four days prior to the earthquake based on planetary alignment. If planetary alignment belongs to the realm of astrology or astronomy can best be left to the advocates of empirical facts for scientific documentation.

But scientific facts like planetary alignment, lunar cycles, shooting stars, meteor showers, ionic content in the atmosphere, seismic pressure accumulation, and measurement thereof, are all easy to document. Why then are these phenomena not being documented by the scientific or seismological community to forecast geological calamities? 

Let us go by facts alone… I hope it appeases the scientific community to lead them into desperately needed earthquake forecasting.

The Great Andaman Sumatra Earthquake that triggered a massive ocean wide tsunami on 26th December 2004 occurred on a full moon. Strangely exactly one year before that on 26th December 2003 the Bam earthquake struck in Iran. Infact the day after the Boxing Day Tsunami I was bitter with the images of Mother Nature’s Manslaughter pouring in over TV. That’s when I realized the significance of 26th. Apart from the Bam earthquake in Iran on 26th December 2003, 26th January 2001 had seen a so called rogue earthquake occur outside a geological fault line in Bhuj, Gujarat, India. It left me scurrying to the historical database of earthquakes maintained by the United States Geological Survey.

Sure enough what I found left me with a good deal of food for thought: That geological calamities are quite literally governed by the lunar cycles on Planet Earth! Here’s a list of earthquakes I pulled out of the historical database of earthquakes maintained by the United States Geological Survey.

1.       26 December 1939 Turkey (M.7.8),

2.       26th November 1942 Turkey (M 7.1)

3.       26.May 1957 Turkey (M 7.1)

4.       26th April 1959 (Taiwan region (M 7.5)

5.       26th January 2001 Bhuj Earthquake (M 7.6)

6.       26th May 2003 - Seven Trees, California - M 3.8,

7.       26th May 2003 Halmahera Indonesia ( M 7.0),

8.       26th May 2003 Muir Beach California (M.3.8),

9.       26th December 2003 Bam Earthquake (M 6.6),

10.   26th December 2004 Sumatran Mega Earthquake (M 9.1),

11.   26 February 2005 Simeulue Indonesia (M 6.8),

12.   26. September 2005 Peru (M 7.5)

13.   26th May 2006 Java Indonesia (M 6.3)

14.   26th December 2006 - Taiwan region - M 6.9,

15.   26th December 2006 - Taiwan region - M 7.1,

16.   26th July 2007 Molucca Sea (M 6.9)

17.   26th September 2007 Papua New Guinea, (M 6.8)

18.   26th December 2007 Alaskan Earthquake, (M6.4)

19.   26th April 2008 Nevada USA (M 5.0)

20.   27th February 2010 Bio-Bio Chile (M 8.8)

21.   12th May 2008 Sichuan Earthquake China  (M 7.9)

I must clarify here… that this database contains earthquake details after the Boxing Day Tsunami too. When I had to do a radio talk on this subject for All India Radio I fished out all subsequent details available on the historical database of earthquakes maintained by the United States Geological Survey till I think April 2010. If the USGS had not moved their historical database I could have found more meat to this story! A similar database by USGs can be found on https://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/comcat/

The historical database of earthquakes maintained by the United States Geological Survey has since “been moved on account of heavy traffic”. But it reveals that earthquakes and volcanoes occur unfailingly around the lunar cycles.

The Boxing Day Tsunami’s power, it seemed, was reinforced by the lunar traction of tidal waves. The high tide was reversed by the trigger of the Tsunami at the epicenter and doubled down in its deathly power claiming the lives of 2,27,890 people in around 14 countries around the Indian Ocean.   



From what little we know of historical geological events and their dates of occurrence it emerges indeed that the massive geological events occurred around the new moon or full moon: Vesuvius / Pompeii on the new moon of October in 79 AD. Krakatau Super volcanic explosion was preceded by minor eruptions starting from the new moon night of May 1883 onwards. 6th and 7th May were new moon nights. It culminated in the huge super volcanic explosion on 27th August 1883 in the Java Straits in Indonesia.  26th August was not the new moon day, 18.08.1883 was. Current research on the Pompeii disaster of Mount Vesuvius indicates that 24th August or 24th October was the likely date of the super volcanic explosion in Italy. My thought / personal opinion is that volcanic explosions choose new moon days / nights and earthquakes full moon days / nights.

What impact the tides might have had on phreatic volcanic explosions of the Krakatau on 27th needs deeper research. Nevertheless the bulge of the plume was ripe for explosion well past the full moon night on 18th August 1883. Though explosions had started on 9th May 1883, the Island of Krakatau an ancient volcano blew its lid off on 27th of August splintering the Island into four volcanic cones and leaving Krakatau as Rakata! 

Accurate readings and interpretations thereof will certainly lend pointers for effective earthquake forecasting: Seamount eruption in oceans trigger El Nino Southern Oscillation bzw. La Nina currents. Seamount activity alters the density of convective currents in the mantle plume, vis a viz the magnetic pole. There are then changes in electromagnetic fields and frequencies which need to be measured accurately for robust interpretation.

 

·         How do these convective currents of the magmatic plume impact subterranean gaseous and seismic pressure?

·         If yes can this measured seismic pressure at subduction zones help us map subduction and related seismic pressure better?

·         Can AI be calibrated against traditional wisdom?

·         Surely this submarine / subterranean change in convective currents will reflect on the ionic content in the atmosphere?

·         Is there a way of quantifying this with available scientific instrumentation and technology today?

 

The scientific community everywhere has so far refused to accept traditional wisdom of lunar almanac to map seismic and other geological cycles. Dr. Frank Hoogerbeets of the Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGS) in Netherland has very effectively documented earthquake forecasting by mainstreaming astronomy through planetary alignment with seismology through astrology... perhaps? Or... am I wrong in perceiving this?

Dr. Hoggerbeets according to media reports has earmarked a few areas of Planet Earth as seismically worth watching in the next few weeks: among them,  The Pamir fault / Indian Plate's NW / SE boundaries converging at the Horn of Africa...running on the northwest  to southwest  of the Indian Subcontinent on the west bank of the Indus in Pakistan till the point where the Indian plate turns south east at the Horn of Africa... 

If indeed a tsunamigenic subduction earthquake is likely on this fault in the near future, governments on these coasts - Pakistan, Iran, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait (although it does not face the Arabian Sea, the nature of Tsunamis is such that it pummels into narrow bodies of water like the Persian Gulf in this case, hammering the coasts nearby) Oman, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Somalia, Socotra, Seychelles, Mauritius, Maldives, will do well to start preparing - with earmarking of evacuation routes, housing shelters,   drinking water and sanitation infrastructure, food rations, emergency energy supply, Emergency Services and so on based on per capita usage indicators, medicines, ambulances, and, sorry to say body bags. These are Disaster Risk Reduction protocols. 

It was only after I studied very deeply for my book research Preparing for the Day After that I understood seismology far deeper… Which brought a whole bunch of questions to me; …these... I would like the seismologists to engage with…

I am not talking of traditional wisdom here, but I am engaging in hard scientific facts and documentation.

I only hope such engagement will help save millions of lives during menacing subduction earthquakes. I earnestly request seismologists to respond to the following questions:

1.Since seismographs have already been placed by scientific institutions inter alia like USGS, isn’t it possible to measure the seismic pressure and read the mounting seismic pressure?

2.More critically… doesn’t the increase in the subterranean seismic pressure translate to the imminence of the seismic pressure splitting the ground above?


3.If the seismograph readings of increase in seismic pressure can be calibrated against the calendar it should suggest an increase in subsidence or build up of pressure against the lunar cycle? Surely it is a simple cost effective science experiment that the research institutes can document?

4.Can the USGS for example or the other research institutes like Solar System Geometry Survey, NASA, Indian Seismological Research Institute, European Seismological Commission etc please reveal data on seismic pressure reading for 4th  and 5th February 2023? I can almost wage my heart and cyber space that the slant will be on the fault lines bordering Turkey and Syria.

5. Is it possible dear scientists to feed in the lunar cycles and get the dates of the full moon and new moons retrospectively?

a.       With that can we get the new moon and full moon dates of October 79 AD for example?

6. Is there a calendar of fresh lava flow from all active volcanoes of the earth? Please do calibrate it against the lunar cycle.

7. When we have answers to all these questions we can perhaps understand the connection between earthquakes volcanoes and cyclones, and how they will affect us mere mortals on earth’s surface.

8.  My mother always says the cloudy weather will clear after the 6th night of every lunar cycle. Scientists please take note and study if there is merit in this kind of traditional wisdom? And, yes please share your thoughts online so we can engage constructively further … The most basic tenet of disaster mitigation is to share lessons learnt and contribute to disaster discourse.

9.       I promise I will come back with more engaging thoughts!


UUpdate / Further suggested reading: 

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230213-the-uncertain-science-of-predicting-earthquakes 

https://www.science.org.au/curious/earth-environment/earthquakes 




Comments

  1. EkuldomFebruary 12, 2023 at 3:52 AM

    Did you hear of Nicola Tesla's Earthquake machine?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Capturing CurrentsFebruary 12, 2023 at 4:32 AM

      No not of Tesla Earthquake machine itself, will gladly check it out thanks. Many attempts are being made by the scientific community to create early warning mechanisms. But early warning works best when Disaster reduction protocols are in place. Early warning in mere seconds helps only in effective evacuation perhaps. I was impressed with Dr. Frank Hoogerbeets' forecast of an imminent earthquake both in Turkey / Syria border of last week and his forecast of an EQ on the NW of the Indian Plate. Early Saturday morning 11.02.2023... rather Friday midnight there was a tremor at 1252 am Saturday morning Indian time zone in the area that he had forecast. Now it that a foreshock? Does the Indian seismologists community take such forecasts seriously? Unfortunately seismologists everywhere are skeptical of EQ forecasting. I am keenly awaiting comments from USGS. From what I know there are very few people who have been able to forecast EQs precisely. Some forecast based n cyclical patterns, some others on extra sensory perceptions, some like Dr. Hoogerbeets on planetary alignment, others on wildlife / natural history behaviour and so on... none of which are authenticated by the scientific community / aka seismologists. My article makes a serious attempt to document the intangible elements precluding a seismic event... I guess its a learning experience for all of us... but sooner we learn ... more the hope of saving lives.

      Delete
  2. aditiFebruary 12, 2023 at 8:06 PM

    Perhaps facts of Turkey-Syria earthquake presented by you is incomplete? The severe depletion of ground water since 1980s has been reported in the region thru innumerable research papers including scientists of affected countries in vain. The media dictated facts are thus incomplete & biased with Western explanations. The residents of the cities affected used ground water pumped out.That's what happens in every city with high-rise RCC skyscrapers. Plate tectonics movements effected by severe depletion of groundwater reserves is safely ignored by most researchers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Capturing CurrentsFebruary 12, 2023 at 8:20 PM

      Hi Aditi.... indeed ground water depletion can have seismic impact. Unsustainable development is at the core. But this was a seismic tremor on a fault line with accumulated seismic stress. The focus of my article is scientific quantification of other scientific precepts like ionic content, subterranean seismic pressure etc. around the lunar cycle. Trying to focus on this to get the scientific community to accept (what may be viewed as traditional wisdom only) And yes we do need to quantify other variables like depletion of ground water table to quantify its impact on fault lines. Press maybe fed what you may call western perspectives but press persons doo their research beyond hand outs!

      Delete
  3. RamFebruary 15, 2023 at 9:19 AM

    Can scientists predict a particular earthquake?
    In short, no.
    https://theconversation.com/seismologists-cant-predict-an-impending-earthquake-but-longer-term-forecasts-and-brief-warnings-after-one-starts-are-possible-199666
    It is interesting that both longer-term assessments of likelihood of earthquakes in a time frame for a given region are possible, as well as a few seconds of early warning with the proper instrumentation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Capturing CurrentsFebruary 15, 2023 at 9:25 PM

      Hi thank you for your comments and for sharing an interesting link. I am very interested in this subject and in 2016, on 11th November I had forecast an earthquake of around M 6.2 in S - SW of Japan, near northern tip of Taiwan, and indeed, it did happen. Although I did not publish it because obviously I would not like to create panic; secondly it is considered terrorism and unlawful in India to forecast / publish earthquake prediction as per provisions of the National Disaster Management Act. So I just whispered to my father that I expect an EQ of M 6 or so in S SW of Japan. I had based my forecast on the lunar cycle and since 11th November 2016 I think was a new moon I had expected a fairly big one. News broke that the Sakurajima volcano erupted and related to that was a foreshock of around 6.2 or 6.6 if I recall right. Needless to reiterate my father was extremely proud of my forecast! He went around telling his peers that his daughter successfully predicted an earthquake! However I was wrong because this earthquake was a foreshock for a volcanic eruption, not an earthquake in itself. I usually calibrate latest earthquakes against the location and lunar cycle to guesstimate an earthquake .... I wish there were instruments available to measure seismic pressure accumulation.

      Delete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Image
  DDF Editorial The Wyanad landslide was bereft of a Disaster Mitigation blueprint The landslide triggered by flash floods in Kerala’s Wyanad district  on the intervening night of 30 th – 31 st July is not just  a  manifestation  of Climate Change, but a human made disaster triggered by a state  of  policy paralysis.  While the Home Minister announced in both Houses of Parliament t hat early warnings had repeatedly been sounded (ostensibly for  the S tate Government to act on it), was received  skeptically. Opposition Parties and some Members of Parliament  have issued Breach of Privilege notice to the Speaker seeking action  against the Home Minister for what they perceive as the Home Minister  lying to Parliament. Politics aside, early warnings issued by nodal agencies like  say  Indian  Meteorological Department or the Central Water  Commission, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information...
Read more

Who wouldn't like to share benefits? But its about Sharing of Benefits from Common Property Resources and global Biological Heritage

  By Malini Shankar, Digital Discourse Foundation In the first part of the curtain raiser series we tried to comprehend the basic meaning and significance of Biodiversity that is at the heart of benefit sharing mechanisms of the Nogoya Protocol for instance. It is the attempt to protect Common Property Resources sustainably by the UNCBD or United Nations’ Convention on Biological Diversity. Today let’s try to figure the need for its governance.  "The Conference encompasses the 16th Meeting of the Conference of Parties serving as the meeting of parties to the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, and the fifth meeting of the Conference of Parties to the Nagoya Protocol on access to genetic resources, and the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits from their Utilisation. It will include a high level ministerial segment." According to the official website of the UNCBD COP 16 Let us understand by example. The Kani tribes in Kerala shared a patent with the Tropical Botanical Garde...
Read more